Model Railway Forum banner
1 - 16 of 16 Posts

·
is asleep
Joined
·
758 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 ·
With the second "Great Depression" or "The Downturn" (TM and © BBC News) or the "End of Capitalism" or whatever the panic stirring media want to call it now getting stuck in I was thinking about what the effect will be on the eBay market for model trains?

I would guess that there could be an upsurge in items for sale as some people under financial pressure liquidate their collections or the rolling stock that that they now can't budget building a layout for etc. etc. and at the same time the number of potential buyers may decrease for the same reason. Does this mean that there will be more choice and less competition for those who are still buying? Will this go beyond the person-to-person sales of eBay and effect Model Shops too? More discounting / sale of stock at closing down? (Am I just stating the obvious?)
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,611 Posts
I think it is all relative. People are going to maybe look harder at discretionary expenditure, and last years must have may turn into next years maybe.

From my perspective, I will probably spend less next year, but that is more because of the exchange rate differential and how much I consider something to be worth. I may not buy things just to push up the value of a shipment.

Still one of the great things about this hobby is that it is not just about spending money, its about building and running as much as anything.

John
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
762 Posts
There may be some who downgrade from buying new to buying from eBay. So that might act to push prices up on eBay. So might the growing familiarity with and acceptance of eBay also act to push prices up. Few have had much foresight as to where market prices for any commodity are now. So it would be a brave person who felt like committing themselves to any prediction of future prices at this moment.
Andrew
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
101 Posts
For what it is worth, I would guess that prices of top-end collectable stuff (rare Wrenns and so on) will ease a bit or even collapse, while run-of-the-mill second-hand items may actually be in more demand. An auction house like eBay is a far better way of measuring the day-to-day effects of the recession than, say, the prices charged in shops. So expect to see far fewer £600+ Wrenns being sold conversely now maybe a good time to be auctioning off old and worn rolling stock. Also for what it is worth, I have noticed a lot of eBay sellers having trouble shifting higher-price items. High starting bids ALWAYS put people off, IMO.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
6,201 Posts
Ebay seems to be still fairly buoyant on items i look at recently ......though i do agree more people are looking at secondhand items than ever before, there have been bargains a nice Kato SD45 new in it box being one to join my collection

In the credit crunch one of the first things to go will be unfortunatley peoples hobbies the downside ...but to those who can still afford to buy at reasonable prices a chance to purchase more stock .
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
338 Posts
Well, there has been a massive increase in the number of Z scale items being auctioned (but not necessarily bought). Prices seem to be holding up reasonably well, though I do see some (N scale) stuff selling at substantially less than I have paid in the past. Having said that, quality-toys-trains in the US posted on another forum that they were having a sale with substantial discounts to get rid of much of their inventory. I had a look at the site and was horrified at the prices! (One I noticed was an Orient Express set he bought off me a few months ago for £125 and is asking $400 for it!. No wonder he is having problems shifting the stuff.)

All the best,
Chris
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
296 Posts
I'm not sure it's impacting countries in quite the same way anyway - whilst in the UK the news is all about the economic downturn, here in Belgium it's rather subdued.

Personally I have a monthly train budget - my salary hasn't changed, so that budget hasn't changed either - I'll be on the look-out for bargains, wherever they be. If the train is on my list, and the train being sold is much cheaper, then I may even rush the purchase!
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
338 Posts
Hi Kim. Good to see you here.

I have cut back drasticly since retiring (and having to pay a tax backlog). I don't have a budget, I just watch what I am buying and if I see something I really want (Z or N) I'll go for it as long as I can pay cash, not credit card.

As far as the economic downturn is concerned, I am convinced that it would have been far less of a problem and that it is being driven by the media with their stories of gloom and doom. They report rumour as if it is fact and then their prophecy is self-fulfilling.

All the best,
Chris.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,499 Posts
I have to say i havn't really seen many model railway stuff go that much cheaper on ebay than it normally does and to be honest some of the traders still seem to think they can charge the same for stock as they were charging a few months ago (though it should be cheaper now with the difference in VAT!!).
Of course we all have a choice and no one is making anyone buy there stuff.

Anyway rant over and i feel alot better now.

Kind regards
Paul
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
6,201 Posts
Good buys are still around ........ bought a Gaugemaster 100M control tonight £13.00
as new in its box
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
763 Posts
It will probably vary according to category .

I'm not surprised if Continental HO prices are holding up : you would have expected Continental countries to have been less affected (though interestingly their economies appear to be being hit alnmost as hard - in our business its simply a matter of the slowdown there being not quite so severe) - in any case there has been a severe slowdown in Continental RTR sales for some years and buying second hand from eBay has probably been practiced more vigourously as a cheaper alternative to buying new.

A quick look through listings of kits and kitbuilt locos at the weekend suggested that this market was looking pretty weak with completed kitbuilt locos in some unfinished auctions at around £20-£25 . A lot of this looked to me like deceased estate material

Ebay prices will shift at the point where there is more stuff being offered than there are buyers, and the sellers are prepared to accept whatever they can get, rather than pricing high and letting it go through unsold . A lot of overpriced "buy it nows " seemed to be sitting there unwanted....

To be brutal about it, I wouldn't expect a big shift in prices until after unemployment has risen sharply and you have forced sellers . At the moment you have people being told they are going - but they haven't gone yet

I can see the ebay market in Kestrels being "interesting" . I can see a few would-be smart traders getting very burnt
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
100 Posts
I'm looking for quite a bit of OO stuff right now to continue on the sound/smoke/lighting project work I enjoy and have really noticed little change thus far; other than....higher starting prices (daft IMO) ridiculous reserve prices etc etc.

Notably the profit merchants have little to play with other than the ltd edition run of 300 deltics from the NRM with one surfacing this week for £350 buy it now! I'm glad I had one from the NRM 9my Christmas present as I am waiting for a chip to arrive from Richard (DCC concepts) to convert the one I had originally.

I need several locos right now and keep getting beaten in bid price; some are still going for more than the discounted retail price that many dealers are offering, which is why I will decide my max price before bid end.

Now is now however and January February could be an altogether different story so I will keep my small wedge handy to hopefully get a few bargains. Fingers crossed anyways.

Mozzy
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
762 Posts
Some buyers might pull out due to lack of funds, others who may have previously bought new might seek better value for money and switch to ebay. But this market does not seem to be rational in that the cost of time,messing about, postage plus a definite premium for risk factor on locos adds up to more than the price from a normal retailer. it seems like the thrill of winning is more important to some people in this market than rational use of hobby funds. Every time I look at Ebay I go straight back to retailers sites. But each to his own.
Andrew
 
1 - 16 of 16 Posts
Top