[Ravenser]

The gentleman behind Fox Transfers had a heart attack about 2 months ago , and hence Fox have been forced to withdraw from all future exhibitions , perminently and with immdeiate effect.

They were already planning to cut down drastically - this has forced them off the circuit

Alan Gibson is winding down to closure at the end of the year . I'm very glad I don't model in EM - this could be quite a worrying situation for a very basic item of supply. Buy now - especially if you have any plans to build any industrial engines or small diesel shunter in the next decade , buy wheels while you can

All rather worrying

 

[Ravenser]

Trade support is an emotive issue , especially in London. However it's worth pointing out that stand rent is 40% of the cost in dbclass50's figures and only one element in the equation.

On dbclass50's costings, even if stand rent were slashed by 25% it would only reduce the total cost by 10%, and he would still need to take £2700, which is still QUOTE a hell of a lot of small bits & pieces

On the other hand if you slashed 25% from the trade income of the big shows which hire public venues, I suspect most/all of them would stop being financially viable and fold (I don't know the actual financial results for any of the big shows mind you, but I do know DEMU Showcase loses a 4 figure sum)

Food and drink for the traders' stand crew , on these costings , is equivalent to 60% of stand rent.

By all accounts it was the hotel bills and meal costs in London that were the biggest factor in the specialist traders switching from London to York half a generation ago

As far as "overmanned" layouts are concerned , it's not necessarily the case that this is costing the exhibition.

If the layout is local or from within 40 or 50 miles of the show it's quite possible some of its operators have come for the day at their own expense on the basis of free admission to the show and lunch, reckoning that with plenty of bodies available they'll have several hours to see the show. It's by no means uncommon that only a core crew are with the layout and on expenses/accomodation - others may look in for one day under their own steam

Secondly , if you bring a car, you can fit up to four people in a car . In dbclass50's example fuel remains £60 whether there is one , two or four people in the car (ok maybe with 4 it becomes £65) . So long as they don't require overnight accomodation , the cost to the show is still £60. Shows won't book layouts that require too many operators to be accomodated - its not viable

In the case of the small layout at a small show BritHO mentions I will bet money it was a local layout and the expenses amounted to nil or petrol for 1 car for two short round trips . Small shows don't have the money to spend heavily on expenses. Cutting the number of operators in this case would almost certainly not have saved the show anything

 

[Ravenser]

QUOTE Generally, we find that some of the smaller shows are more cost effective - many of the other smaller traders we talk to tend to agree. Maybe, the days of the big prestige shows are drawing to a close ?

It depends where you're coming from.

From the point of view of the smaller trader, quite possibly. I'm not sure that the circle can be squared as far as small traders costs /revenue for doing big shows. A moderate volume/low cost show may well be a much more cost effective way for the trader to go than a high volume/high cost exercise, especially now there is also the internet to generate on-line orders. Much more enjoyable too perhaps

But I don't think the big shows are doomed without small traders. Attendences at the really big shows and the next tier down seem generally to be rising slowly but steadily. Warley hit a new record gate last December, York's gate is holding up or growing I believe, and I understand Alexandra Palace in 2006 was about 20% up on attendance Warners first London show , and from what I can gather between a third and a half higher than the gate in the dying years of IMREX. Harrogate is down a bit but that seems to be more due to the change of venue . Nottingham allegedly could do with a bigger venue. Shows like Spalding and Railex Aylesbury seem to be doing pretty well in the next bracket down.

And I'm sure this isn't an issue at the specialist shows like Scaleforum, ExpoEM, or DEMU Showcase

None of these shows look like they are going to keel over to me - so long as they don't lose their venue (Chatham being a case in point). In fact I remember a discussion on another forum where quite a lot of people suggested they preferred to pay £5 or £6 to see a larger show rather than spend an hour or two at a small show. I've heard the suggestion from one or two sources that these kind of shows might be feeling the draft a bit , though I've not heard any direct evidence whether this is true

Big shows with few specialist small traders may be a less rich experience but I don't think that means the big shows will fade away or fold

 

[Ravenser]

As my comments seem to have touched a raw nerve -I wasn't in any way trying to be negative about specialist traders, or to dismiss their contribution. At the risk of a visitation from Neil S Woods , I don't want things to end up like in Germany . I model a prototype not a brand

dbclass50 seemed to be saying that specialist traders found the smaller shows work better for them , and suggesting that without the specialist traders the larger shows might not have a future.

All I was saying is that I think they will survive, even if the trade side is not the quality we would all like. I don't think the numbers can be made to stack up in a way that will make big shows in big cities attractive to specialist traders, and if the choice is between a London show with limited specialist trade or no major show south of Coventry , then I'll choose the impoverished show over nothing at all

This doesn't mean the specialist trade has no future. I'm not sure they need to be at the 5-6 really big shows anymore. 3mm has a very healthy specialist trader base - they go to small specialist events like the 3mm AGM held in small out-of town locations, they deal by mail order. You won't find 3SMR or Finney and Smith at big shows. The internet offers huge opportunities to the small trader - he can sell on line without leaving home. Fox Transfers had already decided that they had a viable business without attending exhibitions.

What I'm saying is that the old "business model" whereby a trader made most of his earnings from going out on the circuit with a stand at lots of shows is breaking down. Bromsgrove Models , with no shop, no exhibition stand and trading over the internet , looks to me like the sort of specialist trade we will see in future (And I do put my money where my mouth is - I bought a PowerCab and decoders from Bromsgrove Models rather than trying to buy something over the internet from Germany or the US, precisely to support the "trade" in Britain. )

I'm shocked to hear we've lost Woking show - I'm actively inolved with DOGA and I know DOGA have had a stand at Woking for many years. From what I've heard (its off my own patch) Woking had a very good mix of traders. But in support of my previous comments , I'd point out this has nothing to do with layouts or their expenses or a lack of specialist trade- its property prices and the cost of the venue that has led to this. No show can cope with a doubling in venue costs. The organisers of Derby show have said on MREMag that they are under pressure from venue costs as well

A major increase in prices would be a risk. The gate would certainly decline and there are already grumbles about the cost of certain big shows (I know of folk who won't attend Ally Pally because of the ticket price). The grumbles may be unjustified , when you compare other events prices (or the fact that most of the cost of attending larger shows is travel). Unfortunately organisers have to reckon with unjustified complasints as well as justified ones

DEMU Showcase does actually have the specialist trade attend. But a one day event (now 2 ) in a modest venue in a middle sized Midland town carries much lower venue costs than a big Inner London show can do . Which show will Express Models in Loughborough attend - Burton , where they can drive home and sleep in their own bed , or London?. (And yes they've got an on-line store)

 

[Ravenser]

QUOTE What did you mean that you didn't want things to end up like Germany? You don't want a bigger choice of models and modelling supplies? I'm not sure I understand what you mean?

I was responding to pedro:

QUOTE the hobby could be seriously damaged. in your posts you only seem to be seeing them [specialist suppliers] as small traders, you dont seem to be recognising the huge contribution that they make to the hobby. indeed i wonder if any of the layouts at the ally pally show would have been possible without them. they are the very bedrock of our hobby. without them, we become like germany that is in the hands of a few cash cow companies.

I do not want the specialist trade, the kit makers , the detail people, wiped out, and nothing left but RTR . That would be a diminution of choice and options . Companies like London Road Models do kits for things no RTR manufacturer will ever touch. I will never be able to buy an Alford and Sutton tram loco or an ex WD road van brake from a RTR manufacturer - Smallbrook Studios were selling both at Ally Pally (and I've got the road van kit to build)

There is such a thing as a "Maerklinist" and you do find people in Germany who when asked what they model say "Flieschmann" or "Arnold" . I don't model Hornby - I model the Eastern Region. I bought a Bachmann 170 in Central livery because I fancied a Central 170, and a Hornby 156 in Central because I wanted a Central 156. My shunting plank locos are from Silver Fox , Nucast and Knightwing, and most of the wagons are Parkside kits or heavily reworked RTR.

I've got a Bachmann 20 and a Hornby 31 and kits in the cupboard from DC Kits for 114 Derby Heavyweight and 105 Cravens DMUs because those are the things you need to model Lincolnshire in the 70s and 80s - brand loyalty doesn't come into it. (And I'm currently staring at a Woodhead Electric mouse mat bought from the same source at Ally Pally) Where the club project is concerned life would be very much harder without DC Kits and Bratchill Models for the multiple units, though Bachmann Turbostars, Voyagers and 158s are almost equally important

On a happier note its good to here the Humbrol range is back - we're going to need a lot of Humbrol 81 for the stone buildings on the club project, and I did do a little panic buying when the news broke. Seeing Humbrol's factory in Hull standing empty when visting relatives over Christmas was a melancholy sight