[Rail-Rider]

QUOTE By suggesting the Continental modellers are reluctant to weather their rolling stock becuase of values is it suggested that they are more inclined towards collecting than modelling?
No - that would be a step too far, an unwarranted generalisation.
It might or might not be so.

Together with the other valid suggestions, minimising depreciation is simply another possible reason why any model train lover, quite regardless of nationality, might be reluctant to dirty up his prized and expensive possessions. We might reasonably guess that the more expensive the model, perhaps the more reluctance to mess it up. No figures to prove even that - so even that must remain a guess/opinion.

So far, I think we have time, skill, visual preference and reluctance to devalue.
There may be more.

But hang on - it isn't even known whether Continental modellers ARE more reluctant than anyone else to weather their rolling stock! Again, it's just personal opinion, based on necessarily limited experience - in this case limited to UK exhibitions.

For a variety of reasons, touched on already, it seems unlikely to me that UK exhibitions can in any way reflect Continental home practice. Not even sure that Continental exhibitions reflect Continental home practice.

It seems to me that all exhibitions are, by definition, specialised showcases.

Do UK exhibitions even reflect general UK home modelling practice?
I would suggest there may be considerable doubt about that too.
Do the majority of UK home modellers exhibit?
Who could actually know, but it seems highly unlikely.
Do the majority of home modellers even attend exhibitions?
Again, who could possibly know, but it seems unlikely to me - a personal opinion, not a fact or even a factoid.

How many manufacturers, distributers and other commercial interests exhibit anything that is not pristine or close to it? My equally limited experience suggests it's quite rare, but I don't claim it as a fact. How many new locomotives are marketed in already weathered condition? Not many, I think. As for weathered coaches etc, I'm not sure that there are any offered by manufacturers, surely very few. We can form our own opinions as to why this appears to be the case. Mine is that they don't sell well.

There are so many facets to model trains, that it's risky to attempt to categorise their individualistic owners by sticking labels on them. My experience is that most people (not just modellers!) with the exception of those who perceive themselves to be in the upper echelon, actively dislike being stereo-typed.
But, hey, that's just another personal opinion!

 

[Gary]

QUOTE Not many, I think. As for weathered coaches etc, I'm not sure that there are any offered by manufacturers, surely very few. We can form our own opinions as to why this appears to be the case. Mine is that they don't sell well.

British manufacturers offer limited weathered examples and only really produce enough to meet the limited demand. However, there is a demand so they must believe it is worthwhile for them to offer a limited range.

Now I am not too sure about continental models. Have weathered examples ever been offered?

Browsing through a few catalogues.....

Camouflaged yes. Weathered no.

Considering the relatively passive nature of mainland Europe (and absolutely nothing wrong with that) there is a massive range of military modelling might available to run on the railways.

Its a subject that never seems to be exhibited.

Is every household in continental Europe owned by a closet Nato Commander!

Happy modelling
Gary

 

[Dennis David]

The only models I have seen that are offered weathered on a regular basis are US Narrow Gauge. There weathering seems to be a badge of honor. As far as continental models some of the high ticket items (KISS) offer custom weathering along with anything else that you are willing to pay for.

 

[Ravenser]

QUOTE But hang on - it isn't even known whether Continental modellers ARE more reluctant than anyone else to weather their rolling stock! Again, it's just personal opinion, based on necessarily limited experience

I recently bought a rather interesting softback volume from Loco Revue called "Patinage - 2" which is exclusively about weathering. So clearly the French do weather. Whether the German-speakers do - I'm not sure and rather doubt

Do British exhibition layouts reflect British home layout practice? Not really

Do most British modellers exhibit? No - I'd guess about 10-25% have some involvement with an exhibition layout (if only as an occasional operator through their club).

Do the majority of British modellers even attend exhibitions? Yes.

At a guess , there are about 100,000 railway modellers in the UK. The largest circulation magazine sells just under 50,000 copies. The show gates at Warley/NEC and Model Rail Scotland , the two largest shows in Britain are both in excess of 15,000. Given the locations , most of the people going to one won't go to the other. York and Ally Pally are both well over 10,000 gate. My nearest show, a largish , semi-regional one, gets 2-3000 through the door

If each of the really big shows gets 10-15% of the total hobby through the door, then going to shows is a normal part of being a British railway modeller . Which is the impression I get from other modellers

neil:

QUOTE Britains railways are fantastic compared with the crap they have over here.

Fair comment - based on my own experience some years ago NSW are the only ones in Australia making even a feeble attempt to run a proper passenger railway : the rest have either given up or never even tried in the first place

 

[60134]

Faller offer weathering or "patination" kits so there must be some demand!

Fleischmann have and do offer some weathered vehicles in the HO and N gauge ranges but you can count 'em on one hand.....

I can remember one example of an off the shelf weathered Marklin loco.

60134

 

[Rail-Rider]

It looks like a reasonable degree of agreement that weathered vehicles are in relatively tiny demand - off the shelf anyway.

It's always wise to treat figures with deep suspicion - especially when used to sell us something, because there's a tendency to be selective and also to put spin on them. It's an art form with some people.

QUOTE "At a guess , there are about 100,000 railway modellers in the UK."
But it is stated fairly as "a guess".
With respect, no one actually knows with certainty how many railway modellers there are, not anywhere.
In the end, it's nearly all based on similar guesswork.
I know some people who regularly read model rail forums who don't actually have a model railway, but I wouldn't care to extrapolate a figure from that limited personal knowledge.

If you look at most any internet forum, there is a tendency for the number of 'members' to be commonly at least 5 times higher than the number of active members. Sometimes it's even ten or twenty times higher! But who knows whether even the much smaller number of activists are also active modellers. Similar applies to the much larger number of inactive members. Some people would suggest that if the inactives are saying nothing, then they have no real interest. But lots of people like to quietly listen to the vociferous few - after all, it's free entertainment! For instance, I have next to no interest in politics but Prescott is usually good for a (belly) laugh.

Very similar applies to magazine readers.

Can magazine circulations really be a reliable guide, even assuming the proprietors' figures are accurate in the first place? Heaven forbid they would ever exaggerate, but they are in a position to tell us anything they like!

In any case, how can circulation figures be meaningfully related to numbers of modellers?
Some modellers don't buy magazines at all. I have been in that category, so I know it exists, but no idea whatever on numbers.
A family may have more than one modeller, but they don't each buy their own magazine.
Same would apply to groups of friends.
Some libraries stock model magazines but no one has a clue how many people read them, or why. Maybe it was a wet day and they had read all the others, who knows.
No one knows whether those unknown numbers of readers are actually modellers.
I've been in that category too, but there is no data available.
There are plenty of people who buy modelling magazine(s) but don't actively model and I've also been in that category - again there is no data.

Quite similar factors apply to attendance at exhibitions.
If Dad is the modeller, the chances are reasonably high that some or all of the rest of the family will be dragged along, whether or not any of the rest of them are actively interested. But it could be that a younger member is the enthusiast and then one or both parents are extremely likely to attend, even though not actually interested themselves.

Sometimes people attend out of simple curiosity rather than an active interest and sometimes just because they had nothing better to do that particular day. I expect really keen exhibitionists to dispute this but "there's nowt so queer as folk" and they don't actually KNOW. Who has never watched a TV program in which they had no real interest, just because there was nothing better to do at the time?

Where an exhibition straddles more than one day, is it possible that attendance figures are summed from each day, perhaps giving a higher than realistic "attendance"?
There are lots and lots of factors in play, all of which can skew the figures every which way.

Please understand that I don't KNOW the answers.
All I suggest is that no one else does either

 

[dwb]

>the deliberate high pricing to force people onto the road.
My son's way to work around this is to buy single tickets in advance. He claims this usually works out cheaper than buying a return for the same journey. His experience is based on travelling the ECML from Leuchars to London.

>Can magazine circulations really be a reliable guide
Most magazines have their circulation audited, so they can't be too far from the truth.

David

 

[Ravenser]

Rail-Rider:

I have to work with and extrapolate from imperfect , incomplete and not 100% reliable figures to draw conclusions a lot in my job . So long as a reasonable health warning is given and possible variances given , they can be used to give a reasonable estimate. If estimates from figures from various sources tend to confirm each other , the estimate is unlikely to be that far out

I also think that it is rather unreasonable to take the stance that any figure used in any argument is probably deliberately misleading and therefore should be discounted.

I'm not trying to sell anyone anything, just trying to see if any tentative estimates can be made. To say in effect that we cannot possibly know anything because we should dismiss anything that might be advanced as evidence is a bit too negative

The figures for the big exhibitions are based on ticket sales - these shows offer 2 day tickets as well, so should exclude readmission. (In any case Sunday gate is normally 60-65% of Saturday at almost any show)

Railway Modeller has an audited ABC circulation of just over 46,000 for 2005. Model Rail has an audited ABC circulation of 36,000 for the same period.

There cannot be fewer modellers than the circulation of the biggest modelling magazine - not when the number two mag is close behind it

I think we can legitimately say that the number of railway modellers in Britain must be a lot more than the circulation of the Railway Modeller - given all the modellers who say they never buy RM.

So the total figure must be a good deal more than 50,000. I am including "armchair modellers" in that figure. In my experience "armchair modellers" are keen showgoers , and quite often belong to clubs or societies (or forums!). The also buy things, even if they don't build or run them

How much more is an interesting question, and depends on how many modellers don't read a magazine every month and how many read several magazines.

In addition to RM and MR , there is British Railway Modelling, MRJ, Continental Modeller, Rail Express (with a large modelling section), Modern Railway Modelling (a quarterly) and Model Railroader (from the US ) , all with big enough circulation to appear in plenty of newsagents plus Model Trains International (subscription only)

Clearly a lot of people read more than one magazine. Equally clearly a lot of people who buy certain magazines won't be interested in others

I'd be willing to listen to any estimate between 75,000 and 125,000 - but if anyone claimed a figure below 75,000 I'd be very sceptical. And if you want to claim a figure over 125,000 - well you're saying there's a lot of people out there who don't read magazines, go to shows, belong to clubs, or give any evidence of being there

On every basis that can be measured or estimated - number of magazines, number of advertisers in the magazines, number of clubs on web listings , number of exhibitions advertised , number of forums , ebay listings etc etc, the hobby in France looks a lot smaller than in the UK.

It seems perfectly reasonable to conclude that it is a lot smaller

On the same basis all sorts of evidence suggests that the hobby in Germany , or the German speaking countries is several times larger than in Britain. Exactly how many times is unclear, but "at least 2x and not more than 5x" would be consistant with the pointers

I've heard it suggested there are 300, 000 modellers in "America" . Everything about the hobby in the US feels like the hobby is several times bigger than in the UK , so based on the broad estimate for the UK, this looks like it might be right. Maybe the figure is 250,000 , maybe 400,000

But the big picture is that Germany and the US are by far and away the biggest parts of the hobby - Britain probably comes second in Europe ; a sizeable market but not remotely in the same league , and probably France well back in third

Look at the RTR ranges on sale worldwide and they do look as if that estimate might be right

 

[Rail-Rider]

That's what I call persuasive reasoning - I can listen to that and appreciate it.

QUOTE it is rather unreasonable to take the stance that any figure used in any argument is probably deliberately misleading . . .
Absolutely agreed - or it would be if that's what had been said!

That's why I just cautioned, "treat with deep suspicion".

QUOTE I think we can legitimately say that the number of railway modellers in Britain must be a lot more than the circulation of the Railway Modeller
It sounds a reasonable assumption and, because it sounds so reasonable, I'll surprise you by agreeing!
Well, "more", not sure about "a lot"!
But, logically, it must still remain an assumption, in spite of my inclination to agree.

Let's have a light hearted moment and suggest that millions (??) of people buy raunchy magazine, but very few of them get to actively practise the activities covered therein! But my suspicious nature demands that, in all fairness, I must admit the possibility of being grossly wrong about the "few" and that millions actually do indulge. So the real problem may be only that I am moving in the wrong circles! We are allowed a laugh here - or at least an embarrassed giggle or two.

But I think it illustrates that magazine circulation really can't be relied upon to have a direct link with actual activity, regardless of whether even RR, the notorious cynic, is persuadable that it might.

Another problem is that it's very hard to satisfactorily define "a railway modeller".
That could make for a subject all of its own!
I'm told the REALLY big numbers (trains not magazines) go to young kids at Christmas (in UK!),
but does that automatically make them 'railway modellers'?

QUOTE I'd be willing to listen to any estimate between 75,000 and 125,000
Well, maybe I can surprise you by agreeing here also!
However it is a very large spread and, if we take 100k as the mean, it's +/- 25% spread around that.
But if we take the lower figure as the datum, then the higher figure is a full 66% higher.
Same source figures, just a different take on it - you know what they (and I) say about statistics!

Comparisons get to be really shaky when large spreads are compared with other large spreads and one 'true' figure happens to lie at the bottom of its estimated range AND another happens to lie at the top of its range. I do take on board your comments about providing "reasonable health warnings (!) and possible variances', but these can sometimes be so large as to render the figures something less than useful. It's hard to shake off the abysmal, almost farcically inaccurate estimates drawn up as UK immigration forecasts, presumably calculated/estimated by the 'best' brains and techniques available. I mention that ONLY as an example of how to get things horrendously wrong and absolutely no more than that.

I definitely do not say your figures are wrong - they actually sound quite 'reasonable' to me!
But a largish pinch of salt is still a wise precaution and some call that cynicism.
Maybe we can flog that idea to Saxa (British Salt) for their next advertising campaign.

As I end, it suddenly hits me that it would be interesting to know what percentage of the UK magazines are sold outside the UK and how that might affect estimates . . . it gets ever more complex!

 

[neil_s_wood]

QUOTE Now I am not too sure about continental models. Have weathered examples ever been offered?

Browsing through a few catalogues.....

Maerklin/Trix offer a service where they will professionaly weather your model for a 30 or 40 Euros. The results look very good. Main problem with weathering is it's an irreversible process. It wont just wipe off.

QUOTE >the deliberate high pricing to force people onto the road.
My son's way to work around this is to buy single tickets in advance. He claims this usually works out cheaper than buying a return for the same journey. His experience is based on travelling the ECML from Leuchars to London. I used to use this line every couple of weeks to go to Kirkcaldy when I lived in London. Then it was easy enough to rock up to Kings cross and buy a week or two in advance and it would cost 45 quid return. Then it all went pear shaped when you had to buy the cheap fares on the internet. The only cheapies were if you went via Penzance and Inverness.

When I have come home recently I just found it too hard to get cheap fares and have hired a car as it ended up being cheaper. I really don't like this as I love travelling by rail but they make it so expensive for a family to travel by rail.

QUOTE As I end, it suddenly hits me that it would be interesting to know what percentage of the UK magazines are sold outside the UK and how that might affect estimates . .

All the main UK magazines are available in Ozz albeit two months late. You can get them in the correct month but you will pay twice as much. They are quite popular and can be seen in most decent newsagents in Melbourne. I have seen them in Brisbane too.

 

[Agamemnon]

Many interesting points brought forth here. As a foreigner to all of you (I'm a Finn and I'm ready to bet the only one here), threads like this are enlightening. I recently posted a thread about cultural differences in our hobby to an American forum, and the replies to that one were fairly interesting, too. Plus someone linked me here.

I can't speak for rest of Europe, but in Finland, model railroads and indeed all kinds of modelling are in a very deep, dark place. The first sign I noticed was when they stopped stocking any in non-specialist shops. You can't even get a 1/72 kit from any department store in Helsinki.

When I was a wee lad, there were copious aisles of Airfix and Tamiya stuff next to the cheap plastic army men and GI Joe action figures. Not anymore. And whenever my family went to Helsinki for shopping, I remember going to see the big Fleischmann locomotives in the store. Not anymore. To find some on a store shelf nowadays, you have to know where to look.

While online shopping has stepped up to fill the void, I am concerned over the lack of entry-level products affecting the future of the hobby. My country is an infinitesimal market as it is, and thus, we need every able engineer.