[Doug]

As we see big losses on the World's stock markets and fears of a recession in the US, consumer confidence is down and people are expected to slow down on their spending.

How is this going to affect your modelling?

Do you cut back on your modelling spending and enjoy what you already have? Or do you retreat to the den and use modelling as a panacea to the other stresses of the World, so perhaps the idea of spending a little more on a couple of new trains instead of a new TV this year is fine?

 

[pedromorgan]

Interesting question

its looking pretty dreadfull in asia at the moment.

What worries me more than this is the rising costs of materials. solder is going up by %5 evry month! i have stockpiuled enough for about 2 years but got knows what will happen then.

i think often people use these curcumstances to scare people and stick massive price increases on things.

I have been amazed at how much the global markets do affect my modelling. but i find it frustrating rather than worrying. i hate listening to people whinge on about how much evrything is going up in price. i hate listening to people banging on about how china is ruining their lifes.

In terms of RTR i have already cut back drastically over the last couple of years and i only get things i really really want. 5 years ago i could impulse buy a loco but not now. they are just too expensive.
I sometimes wonder if our living standards are just too high in the west. we encourage the east to come up to our standards but perhaps we should be meeting them half way.

FTSE gained a little back. only down 114 now (it was 150 earlier).

I dont think its just our fault. i think the government and europe has to take a large part of the blame. H&S and european rules have become an excuse for a total lack of common sence. china and india dont have this problem. yes things are dangerous and people should never be made to do things that will put them in danger. but the human mind is very good at deciding for itself what is and what is not an acceptable risk (for instance my mind tells me i am too high off the floor after going up 2 steps on the ladder!!! even when visiting eastern europe, countries that have to obey the same rules as us there is a noticible feeling of freedom from the nanny state.

Down 98 now. perhaps not as bad as first thought.

Peter

 

[bike2steam]

You gotta laugh,if China don't get what they want, they could always declare war, they've got the biggest army, and air-force (although technologically backwards).
Governments don't run countries, thats done by banks, and their owners (big business), look at the Northern Rock fiasco, you, and me gonna pay for that.
Europes not to blame, just the idiots that misjudge the 'directives' that come from there so as to create more jobs for the 'non-productves. There's no future for this country as we no longer make anything, so where's the wealth coming from-moving bits of paper around- I think not.
We gotta blame someone, or lose our sense of humour???!!!
Paul M.

 

[34C]

This 'boom and bust' surging of the economic system seems to be an inescapable part of large scale capitalism. Happens on a roughly seven year time base, with a biggie every fifty years. No agency has any control mechanism, we just have to live with it as part of the making the world richer process. There are beneficial aspects. As the economy recovers it is the right moment to start a new enterprise. Barriers to entry are lower, and a smaller outfit can outpace 'Gigantomax Corp', which still has 50,000 employees busier protecting their positions than looking for market opportunity. Also really inefficient businesses are stressed enough to be 'eaten' by their more efficient competitors, which is an evolutionary filter for quality. Except that protectionism is all too often invoked to 'save the dinosaur'.

Modelling is an escape into a quiet and orderly world!

 

[80class]

QUOTE (pedromorgan @ 22 Jan 2008, 08:42) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>I think the government and europe has to take a large part of the blame. H&S and european rules have become an excuse for a total lack of common sence. china and india dont have this problem. yes things are dangerous and people should never be made to do things that will put them in danger. but the human mind is very good at deciding for itself what is and what is not an acceptable risk (for instance my mind tells me i am too high off the floor after going up 2 steps on the ladder!!! even when visiting eastern europe, countries that have to obey the same rules as us there is a noticible feeling of freedom from the nanny state.

Peter

I agree 100% with that. It is something that the western world will have to address sooner or later as it simply cannot continue as it currently is.

With regard to the market and modelling, I would never think "Oh i'll not buy this now as the market isn't stable" but I may not be able to buy what I normally would due to rising costs in other areas like fuel, for example.

The next five years will be very interesting from an economic point of view. Where will the two competing forces of H&S and low cost end up?

Rob

 

[goedel]

QUOTE (Doug @ 22 Jan 2008, 08:01) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>How is this going to affect your modelling?
Hmm, hard to say. These trends are just averages so the circumstances of each individual can be widely different. Rather than global share prices etc. I'm far more concerned about how Stirling does against the Euro, being a continental modeller.

As Stirling slumps I suspect I will win fewer eBay auctions on www.ebay.de and as a consequence spend less there, but then can spend a touch more via mail order from shops etc. so actually I'll be helping the European manufacturers and shops!!

I don't have any shares so I shall watch that storm safely from the shore - besides all the banks were peddling FTSE-growth linked bonds a few months ago and so I thought - AHA it's all about to go belly up!! Low and behold - it is!! (First law of sensible investment - do the opposite of what your bank advises you.)

And to be honest, all the share prices have been going up for a long time now so it's time for them to come down. If you were playing Higher or Lower with that pickled Bruce Forscyte chap then you'd be shouting "LOWER" as his glamourous assistant turned over the next card...

QUOTE (pedromorgan @ 22 Jan 2008, 08:42) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>I sometimes wonder if our living standards are just too high in the west. we encourage the east to come up to our standards but perhaps we should be meeting them half way.
I've often thought this! Although I came to the conclusion that we maintain our current standard of living in a selfishl and blinkered way and we could be much more efficient at resource usage if we made a few small compromises, and so keep the iPod et al.

Besides, are our big multinationals going to want to sell things to the Third World until they've reached our standard of living OR ask us to show restraint and cut back on our consumption and spending?! Capitalism strongly favours burning resources ever faster at the moment...why do people cut their energy and gas usage etc.? to save money!! What do they then spend it on? A holiday with massive carbon emissions...

QUOTE (34C @ 22 Jan 2008, 10:02) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Also really inefficient businesses are stressed enough to be 'eaten' by their more efficient competitors, which is an evolutionary filter for quality. Except that protectionism is all too often invoked to 'save the dinosaur'.
Ahem...another Northern Rock cake Gordon Brown, or did you choke on the last? Perhaps you'd like to wash it down with our gold reserves, oh, hang on, you flogged them all a few years ago at 'rock bottom' prices...

I would say it's going to hurt some people a great deal in the near future, but everyone else will survive...and carry on modelling!!

 

[poliss]

Yeh, lets not bother with Health and Safety. A few little accidents like Flixborough, Bhopal, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyll, Piper Alpha, Ladbroke Grove, Potters Bar, Selby, Hatfield et al. don't really matter as long as we can save a few pennies on our model railway purchases.

 

[Brian Considine]

QUOTE (poliss @ 22 Jan 2008, 17:48) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Yeh, lets not bother with Health and Safety. A few little accidents like Flixborough, Bhopal, 3 Mile Island, Chernobyll, Piper Alpha, Ladbroke Grove, Potters Bar, Selby, Hatfield et al. don't really matter as long as we can save a few pennies on our model railway purchases.

All these incidents had more than adequate Heath & Safety regimes in place - the problems were caused by people ignoring them !

What sensible people are complaining about is the over zealous Heath & Safety requirements in some areas - for example should I really need all of the following to change a lamp (light bulb) 3m from the floor ;
1) Hi-Vis tabbard.
2) Safety Boots.
3) Hard Hat.
4) Gloves
5) Barriers round the steps.
6) An Assistant (trained of course).
& some documentation ;
7) Site Specific Rick Assesment.
8) Site Specific Method Statement.
9) Site Specific Scope of Work.
10) Permit to Work.
And more besides - I am not talking about landing lights on a major runway or work on an oil rig - I'm talking about changing a lamp in a small retail shop during non-trading hours !

Don't get me wrong - I have alway's worked in a safe manner - it's examples like the above that sensible people are on about.

The "Compensation Culture" & the vultures that infest daytime televison have a lot to answer for !

 

[ozwarrior]

QUOTE (Doug @ 22 Jan 2008, 18:01) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>How is this going to affect your modelling?

I think it's too early to say yet.
If unemployment inflation and interest rates rise then people will probably cut back. Will Railroad come into its own then?

 

[Doug]

Talking of H&S and compensation, have you seen that TV ad where the guy installing something on a wall "was given the wrong type of ladder", subsequently the ladder slips and he falls and damages himself - then he claims and gets awarded compensation.

Whatever happened to Darwinian theory - the strongest survive and the weak perish?

 

[Brian Considine]

QUOTE (Doug @ 22 Jan 2008, 21:23) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>Talking of H&S and compensation, have you seen that TV ad where the guy installing something on a wall "was given the wrong type of ladder", subsequently the ladder slips and he falls and damages himself - then he claims and gets awarded compensation.

Is that the one wire he's "installing a fire alarm" but its actually a burglar alarm ? - if he could'nt tell the difference he's got no chance of working out if the ladder's the wrong type or not, still, he looks like some sort of idiot - all the H & S in the world won't save idiots like him from himself.

 

[neil_s_wood]

To be honest, it doesn't impact my modelling in any way. It only would if I got slung out my job and then I think I would flogging a lot of stuff on EBay.

QUOTE Whatever happened to Darwinian theory - the strongest survive and the weak perish? It's aliving and kicking in the third world!

 

[ME 26-06]

Yes, we are snacking pretty high on the food chain. And yes, we Europeans have a high standard of living. As do the Americans.

Fine.

The only problem appears to be that all that stuff many of us "need" to have - new cars (note the plural), nice house, couple vacations a year, stereo and plasma TV - is not paid for with money we have earned before. Instead, we rely on borrowed money. Buy now, pay later.

Pay later is a good idea in a perfect world. However, today´s globalization has made the employment world a dangerous place. As the

Nokia

employees in Bochum are currently shown: hard work, profitable for the company, is no longer an asset when it comes to keeping your job.

Once you lose that job, and you can´t pay off all the nice things you bought before, you´re doomed. This is imho what is going on in the world today - as a very major contributor, add some rich filthbags who live off the interest others have to work for - hedge fonds, investment banks, I think you all know the type who´ll skim off the money that a company needs so bad to re-invest. The "managers", who mostly "manage" to pull as much money out of the company as possible.

These vampires drain the blood out of the honest working man, make him become a pauper, but give him the impression that - via borrowed money - that pauper can be a plasma TV and Majorca-twice-a-year king.

Until he can´t pay off his debt. Until this happens to too many. Until the banks want their money back, and aren´t likely to get it; on a major scale that is.

Just one question: I can elect my district´s MP, who´ll babble garbage in Parliament all day long. I can elect my town´s mayor, who´ll babble garbage in the town hall. I can choose what bread to eat, what cheese, whaich meat. But I don´t have any say on stuff that really influence my life, I have no way to toss the filthbag out who´ll put 2.500 employees out of work and relocate to China (or, with my tax Euros, to Romania), and I cannot legally dispose of the slimebag who wants his "shareholder value" from my hard work without even thinking about moving one muscle for that money. Sort of unfair, ne c´est pa?

 

[rb277170]

Its not just Health and Safety but Disability regulations that add to costs.

Firstly let me say I do agree with the bulk of H & S and Disability regulations. Its just when taken to excess that I have an issue.

As an example the factory I work for has had to allocate 2 disabled parling spaces and build ramps to them to fit in with Disability regulations, despite the fact that we do not have disabled people working for us. Our internal corridors had to be taken out and replaced because they were not large enough (by 2 inches) to accomadate a wheelchair.

Now you may say this is all very sensible. But do you really think factories in Poland, Brazil, China and India are burdened with these excessive regulations? There are other reasons for lack of manufacturing in this country- like total govenment indifference- however these rules don't help.

Russell

 

[Doug]

On Tuesday, Hornby/Scalextric will release an update on trading, which should give the market an insight into consumer appetites for hobby goods amid the current talk of recession. This morning (28/01/2008), Hornby said it had continued to experience significant growth in the UK in the run-up to Christmas while sales for the three months to end-March would be above last year's strong levels.

"A strong finish to 2007 shows once again that Hornby is extremely resilient in times of economic uncertainty," said Chairman Neil Johnson in a trading update on Monday.

The British Toy Fair kicks-off too and we will bring news from there.

 

[pedromorgan]

Looking forward to the hornby report.

On H&S we have actually pulled out of a big exhibition because of it! we took one look at the booklet they gave us and just had to walk away. it was 3 times worse than Warly!! just crazy. we are very dissapointed about it. i didnt go to erith but i was told this morning that Erith was a dream buy comparison.

Peter

 

[Brian Considine]

QUOTE (pedromorgan @ 28 Jan 2008, 11:07) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>On H&S we have actually pulled out of a big exhibition because of it! we took one look at the booklet they gave us and just had to walk away. it was 3 times worse than Warly!! just crazy. we are very dissapointed about it. i didnt go to erith but i was told this morning that Erith was a dream buy comparison.

Peter

I'm not surprised at you walking away from over zealous H & S (hard hat now on & awaiting the H & S fascists flaming). The more sensible people walk away from this sort of thing the sooner we can get on with things in a reasonable manner.

Erith was a superb exhibition. Well organised with shedloads of common sense & no problems (Thanks guys). Great atmosphere & well signposted (even though BRITHO tried to go the wrong way several times - then again he's not too good at seeing those on gantries over motorways either

!).

Hope to see you at Brighton

 

[Richard Johnson]

QUOTE (dbclass50 @ 28 Jan 2008, 22:05) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>I'm not surprised at you walking away from over zealous H & S (hard hat now on & awaiting the H & S fascists flaming). The more sensible people walk away from this sort of thing the sooner we can get on with things in a reasonable manner.

*** H&S fascisti.....That raises interesting images.

You may NOT hang Benito upside down unless:

(a) The ropes used are first checked to comply with specifications for lifts of this type. Approved Knots are listed in subsetion B3/21/1945/paragraph 6 under "knots, ankle, inverted hanging"
(

You must use a regulation ladder, to be held by an accredited person or persons whilst tossing rop over post..
© The lamp post is first to be checked for rigidity by an accedited engineer and isolated properly from all main grid power by the appropriate techical staff.
(d) The crowd barriers are to be red and white. They must be not less than 1.2 metres tall and must be placed in a continuous circle with a radious of not less than 1.5 body lengths which radiates from a point directly below the crwon of Mr Mussolini's head.
(e) a flashing light must be placed on Mr Mussolini's feet to warn low flying helicopters....
(f) a "For exhibition use only - do not try this at home" leaflet must be printed and placed within easy reach of all spectators.

Finally, should the wind rise above 10kph, appropriate guy ropes must be fixed to the body to prevent dangerous oscillations.

Richard......

 

[rb277170]

QUOTE (Doug @ 28 Jan 2008, 09:06) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>On Tuesday, Hornby/Scalextric will release an update on trading, which should give the market an insight into consumer appetites for hobby goods amid the current talk of recession. This morning (28/01/2008), Hornby said it had continued to experience significant growth in the UK in the run-up to Christmas while sales for the three months to end-March would be above last year's strong levels.

"A strong finish to 2007 shows once again that Hornby is extremely resilient in times of economic uncertainty," said Chairman Neil Johnson in a trading update on Monday.

The British Toy Fair kicks-off too and we will bring news from there.

Well a healthy Hornby is probably good for model railways as a whole. They certainly seem to be positioning themselves well with the top end of the market covered (HST,Class 56, King Arthur) and the more cost sensitive end with the Railroad range (not exactly toys!) in the event that consumer confidence takes a further down turn

Russell

 

[7113]

QUOTE (dbclass50 @ 28 Jan 2008, 13:05) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>even though BRITHO tried to go the wrong way several times

.

and that was just in the car park!

Regards